IRS Staffing Shortage: Experts Suggest Aiming to Owe Taxes Next Year

TL;DR: Due to significant IRS staffing cuts, experts advise strategically aiming to owe taxes next year to avoid potential refund delays.

Last updated: September 27, 2026

Tax experts are offering a counterintuitive piece of advice this tax season: try to owe money to the IRS next year. This unexpected recommendation stems from a significant reduction in IRS staffing, with approximately 31,000 fewer workers now tasked with processing tax returns and issuing refunds. The implications of this staffing shortage are becoming clearer as tax season progresses. With fewer personnel on hand, the IRS is likely to experience considerable backlogs. This means that taxpayers who are expecting refunds could face much longer waiting times than usual. The sheer volume of returns coupled with a diminished workforce creates a recipe for delays. Given this situation, a proactive approach might be beneficial for many. Instead of striving for a large refund, which means you've overpaid throughout the year, consider adjusting your tax withholdings or estimated tax payments. The goal would be to get closer to owing a small amount, or breaking even, when you file your return next year. This strategy aims to mitigate the impact of potential refund processing delays. If you owe a small sum, you can pay it by the deadline without the anxiety of waiting for a refund that might be significantly delayed. If you are typically due a refund, even a small one, the delay could impact your cash flow at a critical time. For homeowners in Dallas, Texas, this situation presents an opportunity to get ahead of potential tax complexities. When speaking with a licensed, insured tax professional about your tax situation, consider asking: 'Given the IRS staffing issues, how can I best adjust my W-4 or estimated payments to avoid significant refund delays next year?' and 'What are the pros and cons of aiming to owe a small amount versus receiving a refund in the current IRS climate?'

Navigating these tax complexities can be daunting, especially with the added uncertainty of IRS processing times. If you're concerned about your tax debt or potential refund delays, reaching out for professional guidance can provide clarity and a path forward. For those in and around Dallas, Texas, seeking advice from a qualified tax professional is a practical step to consider this week.

Based on reporting by moneywise.com. This is an original IrsTaxRelief Services summary — full details at the source.